By Ricardo Abud
Understanding the political and economic situation in Belarus requires looking beyond the prevailing narratives in Western media.
The country has followed a unique path in Eastern Europe since Alexander Lukashenko took office, becoming a controversial figure internationally but enjoying significant support within its borders.
When Belarus is mentioned in Western political circles, the narrative almost immediately revolves around its leader (who has been in power since 1994), whose figure generates conflicting passions. However, beyond the international headlines, there is an internal reality that doesn't always find a place in the global debate: the country's remarkable stability, its sustained growth in strategic sectors, and, above all, the significant support the president still enjoys among his population.
Lukashenko came to power after the fall of the Soviet Union, at a time when economic chaos and uncertainty gripped the former Soviet republics. He has ruled Belarus for nearly three decades, becoming the longest-serving leader in Europe. His governing style, characterized by strong state control, has drawn criticism abroad but has maintained a domestic stability that many Belarusians value. Elections in Belarus have been the subject of international controversy, especially since 2020, when protests erupted following Lukashenko's reelection. However, aside from the external narrative, multiple internal studies and polls, many of them independent, place his popularity at around 75%. Why such high support after three decades of rule? The answer lies in the domestic perception of order, security, and sovereignty.
This support is partly explained by several human factors:
- Belarus avoided many of the economic and social turbulences that affected other post-Soviet republics.
- The government has maintained an extensive social protection system
- The older population remembers with nostalgia the Soviet stability that Lukashenko has tried to preserve.
While many opted for a radical transition to capitalism, Belarus took a different path: preserving much of the state's productive apparatus, maintaining a strong role for the state in the economy, and opting for a centralized political structure. This formula, viewed with suspicion in Western capitals, produced concrete results: inflation control, a low unemployment rate, robust public services, and an industrial fabric that was never dismantled.
Today, many of Belarus's state-owned enterprises are operating at full capacity. Sectors such as the chemical industry, heavy machinery, mechanized agriculture, and production technology have made the country a significant economic player in Eastern Europe. This is no small feat in a continent plagued by industrial relocation, energy conflicts, and logistical challenges.
For millions of Belarusians, Lukashenko represents more than just a head of state: he is the symbol of a country that has not surrendered to chaos and the vagaries of international politics. While other post-Soviet nations have faced wars, cyclical economic crises, and external dependence, Belarus has remained a functioning state, with internal stability and a clear national identity.
The Belarusian economic model, unlike many post-Soviet countries that quickly adopted massive privatizations, kept much of its industry under state control. This has allowed:
- Job stability for a large part of the population
- Price control on essential products and services
- Planned industrial development with emphasis on strategic sectors
Belarusian state-owned enterprises do indeed maintain high levels of production in sectors such as agricultural machinery, petrochemicals, food processing, and technology. Companies such as BelAZ (manufacturer of some of the world's largest mining trucks), Belarus (tractors), and Naftan (refinery) are examples of sustained industrial success under this model.
In the West, speaking positively of Belarus is often considered politically incorrect. Sanctions, diplomatic blockades, and media pressure have been part of the game. However, it is increasingly evident that there is a disconnect between perceptions from outside and experiences from within. Economic development, well-maintained infrastructure, accessible healthcare, and low crime rates are factors that do not fit with the often-spread caricature of a totalitarian dictatorship.
This doesn't mean ignoring the challenges. Like any long-standing political system, Belarus faces internal tensions, demands for democratic modernization, and a changing world that demands adaptation. But reducing its entire recent history to one authoritarian figure ignores the most important element in any serious analysis: the people.
Belarus occupies a strategic position between Russia and the European Union. This location has defined its foreign policy:
- It maintains a close alliance with Russia, with whom it shares the State Union
- Has developed economic relations with China as a counterweight
- Maintains selective trade relations with European countries
- It has built a national identity as a "bridge" between East and West
This position has allowed it to negotiate economic benefits from its alliances, especially in terms of subsidized energy from Russia, which has been crucial to maintaining the competitiveness of its industry.
The Belarusian model has prioritized stability over political and economic liberalization, which has allowed it to maintain positive social indicators such as low levels of inequality and unemployment. Belarus today is not simply a piece in the geopolitical chess game between Russia and the West. It is a country with its own voice, with a sovereign strategy, and with a population that, despite tensions, has overwhelmingly opted for continuity. Humanizing this reality means seeing Belarusians as citizens who have valued order, stability, and development, even if that model does not meet external standards.
The challenge lies in recognizing this complexity without prejudice. Because understanding Belarus isn't just about understanding Lukashenko, but also understanding why, despite everything, a vast majority continues to see him as a guarantee of a clear path.
To fully understand the Belarusian phenomenon, it is necessary to go beyond simplified narratives and recognize both the achievements and challenges of this development model, as well as the complex historical, cultural, and geopolitical dynamics that have shaped the country's reality.
THERE IS NOTHING MORE EXCLUSIVE THAN BEING POOR
Note: Many diplomats do not actively promote cultural exchange or mutual understanding. They should be promoting the stories, struggles, achievements, and values of both the host country and their own. They remain confined to elite circles, failing to integrate into local communities, universities, think tanks, or even the media. This limits their impact. They fail to assess how many economic, academic, or cultural ties could be generated. A diplomat's success should go far beyond protocol.
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