By: Ricardo Abud
The world is watching with concern the development of the conflict between Israel and Iran, a tension that transcends borders and is materializing in global energy markets . Oil prices have experienced significant increases, with increases of 4% in recent sessions, reflecting investor concern about possible supply disruptions.
The reality is that every conflict in the Middle East brings with it a fundamental question: what will happen to the energy that powers the world? Analysts warn that any attack on key energy facilities could push oil prices to $90 a barrel . More extreme scenarios even suggest prices could reach $300 if the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for crude oil transport, were to close.
In this context, producing countries like Venezuela are returning to the global radar. With one of the largest proven oil reserves in the world , our country is in an unbeatable geostrategic position: far from theaters of war, but close to markets in need of stable alternatives. The possibility of Venezuela increasing its production to cover part of an eventual unmet demand is not a simple hypothesis; it is a card that many are already studying closely in Washington, Brussels, Beijing, and other capitals. Recent experience with disruptions caused by conflicts and sanctions has demonstrated to markets the importance of having multiple energy sources.
Venezuela's geographic location offers significant strategic advantages. Its proximity to major consumer markets in North America and ease of transportation to Asia and Europe position it as a potentially more stable supplier than sources in the Middle East, which are traditionally subject to greater geopolitical risks. Thus, the country has the opportunity to become a reliable energy partner for nations seeking to diversify their supply sources.
However, Venezuela's ability to capitalize on this opportunity faces significant obstacles . Although Venezuelan oil production has shown signs of recovery in 2025 , reaching 1.051 million barrels per day in April (progress, but a far cry from the 3.2 million barrels per day in 2000), the country still lacks the immediate capacity to efficiently extract and process its vast resources.
Modernizing the country's oil infrastructure , which has suffered from years of disinvestment and very high levels of corruption, requires considerable technical and financial capital. Furthermore, the country needs to attract skilled workers and foreign oil companies while navigating a complex regulatory and political environment. The situation with Chevron , which currently produces 20% of the country's total barrels, is a clear example: if this company withdraws, 20% of current production would be lost, highlighting the country's vulnerability and dependence.
From a political perspective, Venezuela faces a dilemma. On the one hand, there is the urgent need to reactivate its economy, marked by years of contraction, hyperinflation, and mass migration. On the other, there is the challenge of doing so without becoming trapped in a new dependency, this time on energy and diplomacy, in the midst of a conflict that is not its own.
Behind every energy statistic are millions of people whose lives are affected by these global fluctuations. For Venezuelan families, an increase in international oil prices represents the possibility of improved public income, investment in infrastructure, and, potentially, an improvement in their living conditions.
The key question is: Can Venezuela become a relevant energy player without compromising its political sovereignty or its pacifist vocation? Can it negotiate without aligning itself, cooperate without subordinating itself, produce without polluting its present or mortgaging its future? The answer, as with almost everything in Latin America, lies in the way it is done. It's not about choosing sides, but rather choosing paths. Venezuela could use this opportunity to promote transparent, sustainable, and ethically oriented cooperation agreements, seeking alliances that respect its self-determination, while contributing to market stability and, why not, peace.
From a regional perspective, strengthening the Venezuelan energy sector could contribute to energy stability in Latin America. Neighboring countries could benefit from more competitive prices and less dependence on external suppliers. Globally, a Venezuelan gradual recovery of its productive capacity represents a balancing factor in energy markets. It's not just about adding barrels to the market, but about creating a geographic and political alternative to traditional energy sources.
The current scenario illustrates the profound interconnectedness of our world. A conflict in the Middle East impacts gasoline prices, while energy policy decisions in Caracas can influence the stability of Asian markets. Venezuela is at a historic crossroads . The confluence of global geopolitical tensions, the global need to diversify energy sources, and its own natural potential create a unique window of opportunity.
The key will be the country's ability to balance its domestic interests with the demands of an increasingly complex and volatile global market. In this process, both Venezuela and the international community will have to navigate between the urgency of current energy needs and the construction of a more resilient and sustainable energy future.
The global energy story continues to be written, and Venezuela, with all its complexities and potential, has the opportunity to be a protagonist rather than a spectator in this global narrative. And perhaps therein lies the true challenge of this historic moment: to use oil not as an excuse for confrontation or as a spoil of the crisis, but as a meeting point, for dialogue, and for reconstruction . Because if there's one thing the world needs today besides energy, it's humanity.
THERE IS NOTHING MORE EXCLUSIVE THAN BEING POOR.
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